According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on the 6th, the global manufacturing PMI in April was 57.1%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, ending the two-month upward trend.
The comprehensive index changes. The global manufacturing PMI has fallen from the previous month, but the index has remained above 50% for 10 consecutive months, and has been above 57% in the last two months. It has been at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating that the current global manufacturing growth rate has However, the basic trend of steady recovery has not changed.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing stated that in April, the IMF forecasted that the global economic growth in 2021 and 2022 would be 6% and 4.4%, respectively, which are 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points higher than the forecast in January this year. The promotion of vaccines and the continuous advancement of economic recovery policies in various countries are important references for the IMF to increase economic growth expectations.
However, it must be noted that there are still variables in the global economic recovery. The biggest influencing factor is still the recurrence of the epidemic. Effective control of the epidemic is still a prerequisite for the sustained and stable recovery of the global economy. At the same time, the risks of inflation and rising debt brought about by continuous loose monetary policy and fiscal expansion are also accumulating, becoming two major hidden dangers in the process of global economic recovery.
From a regional perspective, the following characteristics are presented:
First, the growth rate of the African manufacturing industry has slowed slightly, and the PMI has dropped slightly. In April, the African manufacturing PMI was 51.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The growth rate of the African manufacturing industry slowed down slightly from the previous month, and the index was still above 51%, indicating that the African economy maintained a moderate recovery trend. The continuous popularization of new crown pneumonia vaccination, the acceleration of the construction of a free trade zone on the African continent, and the wide application of digital technology have brought strong support to the economic recovery of Africa. Many international organizations predict that the economy of Sub-Saharan Africa will gradually enter the path of recovery. The latest issue of the "Pulse of Africa" report released by the World Bank predicts that the economic growth rate of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach 3.4% in 2021. Continue to actively integrate into the development of the global industrial chain and value chain is the key to Africa's sustained recovery.
Second, the recovery of Asian manufacturing is stable, and the PMI is the same as last month. In April, the Asian manufacturing PMI was the same as the previous month, stabilizing at 52.6% for two consecutive months and above 51% for seven consecutive months, indicating that the recovery of Asian manufacturing is stable. Recently, the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference issued a report that Asia will become an important engine for sustainable global recovery, and the economic growth rate is expected to reach more than 6.5%. The sustained and stable recovery of some developing countries represented by China has provided strong support for the steady recovery of the Asian economy. The continuous deepening of regional cooperation in Asia also guarantees the stability of the Asian industrial chain and supply chain. In the near future, the deterioration of the epidemics in Japan and India may have a short-term impact on the Asian economy. It is necessary to pay close attention to the spread, prevention and control of the epidemics in the two countries.
Third, the growth rate of the European manufacturing industry continued to accelerate, and the PMI rose from the previous month. In April, the European manufacturing PMI increased by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month to 60.8%, which was a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months, indicating that the European manufacturing industry's growth rate continued to accelerate compared with the previous month, and the European economy still maintained a strong recovery trend. From the perspective of major countries, the manufacturing PMI of the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain has increased compared with the previous month, while the manufacturing PMI of Germany and France has corrected slightly compared with the previous month, but it remains at a relatively high level. In mid-April, the large increase in confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in countries such as Germany, Italy and Sweden has brought new challenges to the economic recovery of Europe. Considering that the rebound of the new crown epidemic may lead to another slowdown in European economic growth, the European Central Bank recently announced that it will continue to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy and will continue to accelerate the pace of debt purchases.
Fourth, the growth rate of the manufacturing industry in the Americas has slowed down, and the PMI has returned to a high level. In April, the American manufacturing PMI was 59.2%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous upward trend for two consecutive months, indicating that the growth rate of the American manufacturing industry has slowed down compared with the previous month, and the index is still above 59%, indicating The recovery momentum of the American economy is still relatively strong. Among the major countries, the growth rate of the US manufacturing industry has slowed down significantly, and the PMI has returned to high levels. The ISM report shows that the PMI of the US manufacturing industry dropped by 4 percentage points from last month to 60.7%. The growth rate of production, demand and employment activities all slowed down from the previous month, and related indexes fell back compared to the previous month, but remained at a relatively high level. It shows that the growth rate of the US manufacturing industry has slowed down, but it maintains a rapid recovery trend. In order to continue to stabilize the recovery trend, the United States intends to adjust its budget focus and increase non-defense expenditures such as education, medical care, and research and development to enhance its overall economic strength. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve is positive about the expected economic recovery in the United States, but also emphasized that the threat of the new crown virus still exists and continuous policy support is still necessary.
Post time: Jun-03-2021